DIVERSA

Climate future lab DIVERSA - Forest disturbances under climate change in Lower Saxony: Understanding drivers and impacts to enhance forest adaptability

Funding and duration:

Lower Saxony Ministry of Science and Culture | 2024-2030

Summary:

During the recent drought period from 2018 to 2022 the vulnerability of Lower Saxony’s forests to the escalating impacts of climate change became evident. However, our current understanding of the natural potential of forests to adapt to climate-change-induced disturbances is limited. A better knowledge of the causes and effects of disturbances is urgently needed to develop management strategies for enhancing the adaptive capacity of forests. Given that climate-induced disturbances will lead to changes in current forest states, the diverse perspectives of forest owners and managers, policy makers and the public need to be considered in decision making. The development of adaptive forest monitoring systems is vital to guide evidence-based decision-making, which can secure forest functioning in the future. To address these challenges, DIVERSA will establish a trans- and interdisciplinary research unit to enhance forest adaptability to climate change in Lower Saxony. We will focus on three objectives: 1) Understanding climate change vulnerability of Lower Saxony’s forests by providing robust evidence of disturbance probability as a function of disturbance agents (storm, drought, pests and pathogens, fire), geophysical site conditions, management history, structural complexity and tree species diversity. We will combine remote sensing data, available disturbance monitoring tools and geodata and forest inventory and forest condition data. 2) Assessing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions and the response of biodiversity to disturbance by assessing the rate of structural and compositional change and its effects on selected forest functions. Biodiversity responses will be assessed by species surveys and structural diversity in rewilding (i.e. abandonment of management in previously managed forests to promote natural dynamics and self-regulation) and managed forests in the Lower Saxony state forests. This assessment will be supplemented by data on biodiversity collected by nature conservation authorities and citizen science platforms. 3) Understanding the perspectives of different forest owners, other stakeholders and the public on disturbed forests to implement participative, effective decision-making. Insight gained in DIVERSA will allow us to refine monitoring tools, provide decision support, and advise the management of Lower Saxony's forests in a rapidly changing world. DIVERSA will serve as a role model for establishing a permanent core research network on climate change adaptation in Lower Saxony and beyond, leveraging change towards a sustainable future for nature and people.